четверг, 21 июня 2012 г.

Current

Китайские PMI - soft landing become.
http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=9680
Или здесь подробнее
http://brokerkf.ru/offer/research/operational-comments/operational-comments_2230.html
Одно успокаивает расхождение с официальным уменьшилось.
Впрочем надолго ли, впрочем с учетом повсеместности Contraction, faster rate в списке то разрыв может вырасти ))

А вот как двигает рынки ГС
http://www.businessinsider.com/market-falls-after-goldmans-short-call-2012-6
Если вы не подписаны на их рассылку Вы лох? или же все же есть шансы?
Я вот не подписан, но чего-то пытаюсь отжать у акул.

Цитата на память

We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June. Noah Weisberger



Further easing is likely to be needed. Our forecast implies that the US economy will continue to struggle with slow growth and high unemployment of more than 8% going into 2013. Specifically, we forecast a slowdown in real GDP growth to just 1.5% (quarter-on-quarter, annualized) in the first quarter of 2013. Moreover, the economy now faces a "monetary cliff" in addition to the "fiscal cliff" in early 2013. Although we have generally subscribed to the "stock view" of the Fed's asset purchase programs, we do believe that unconventional easing is subject to "decay" and that there are some modest "flow" effects at the very long end of the yield curve. Taken together, these factors make a convincing case for additional easing in early 2013. As neither a further extension of the twist nor an extension of the rate guidance would constitute a significant easing step, our baseline expectation is that the FOMC will return to an expansion of the balance sheet by early 2013. The most natural avenue would be a return to large-scale asset purchases, but Chairman Bernanke's reaction to a question on the Bank of England's recently announced credit easing program--he simply said "we are interested"--might suggests that a Fed program explicitly designed to improve credit availability is also a possibility.  Jan Hatzius

Ну и алармистские заявления на зеро:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-economic-implosion-one-chart
падение экспорта большое но все же на графике такие выбросы после роста есть, так что пока это ни о чем, статистическая ерунда

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